Efforts to revive Ajaokuta Steel have begun. However, the question is: will this revival deliver industrial growth, or repeat an expensive history? Festus Akanbi writes

The federal government’s renewed determination to revive the Ajaokuta Steel Company has once again reignited one of Nigeria’s longest-running industrial debates. For over four decades, Ajaokuta has embodied both the country’s industrial ambitions and the frustrations of failed policy execution. Today, buoyed by a proposed $2 billion Chinese-backed investment, renewed investor interest and the implementation of the National Industrial Policy (NIP), the Tinubu administration believes the steel complex could finally become the backbone of Nigeria’s industrial transformation. 

Yet, amid the optimism, economists and industry analysts are urging caution, warning that unless the revival is anchored on private capital, sound governance and commercial discipline, Ajaokuta could become another expensive fiscal burden, much like Nigeria’s state-owned refineries before private investment reshaped the downstream petroleum sector.

The economic case for reviving Ajaokuta is compelling. Steel is the foundation of industrialisation, supplying critical inputs for construction, transport, power, automobile manufacturing, defence and engineering. 

Nigeria currently requires about 10 million metric tonnes of steel annually but produces only about 1.2 million metric tonnes, most of it from recycled scrap rather than primary steel production. The huge supply gap leaves manufacturers heavily dependent on imports, exposing them to exchange-rate volatility and worsening the country’s trade deficit.

Government officials believe a functional Ajaokuta would reverse that trend. The Minister of State for Industry, Senator John…